While the results are not complete unless things change drastically it looks like Mitt Romney is going to finish second once more. If he loses this as I now think the talking heads say he will then where is he?
Romney has spent at least a year trying to win New Hampshire and Iowa. When you look at the two candidates who won Huckabee and McCain neither has a hope of winning the election against Obama or Clinton. McCain is too attached to Iraq and is a GOP Senator – name the last one of those who won.
Huckabee is kind of a GWB II. He is tied to evangelicals and at the same time is a spend thrift. If you are the Democrats you draw both of those to a straight line to GWB.
Meanwhile Romney appears to be a good candidate against both. I do not believe he would be a lock to win. In fact I think he may still lose because of the force of tides against the GOP is pretty strong.
Yet with all that in place I think he has the best chance. But if he loses both states is he done? I think one could argue that he is simply limping into super tuesday.
Guiliani on the other hand may never be a factor in this nomination which seems incredible. Of course what could easily happen is a huge three or four way split on Super Tuesday, what will that do? I think it is clear that with no GOP candidate winning over the whole it could be a very disasterous for the surviving candidate.
With all this in mind if Romney does lose and does not become the VP nominee would he consider a Reagan rerun by taking another shot in 4 years. I think at this point he will be unable to draw enough interest because he already will have appeared to have run his race. Reagan was a late entry in 1976 and was seen as candidate in waiting after Ford flopped.
To my mind at this point he just does not have enough core support to carry on.
Of course South Carolina and Nevada are still to come January 19th.